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The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked^1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently^4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)⁴. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

 

The degree of coupling between the social and ecological components of social-ecological systems is seen as fundamental to understanding their functioning, interactions and trajectories. Yet, there is limited work about how to empirically understand the degree of coupling between social and ecological systems, nor the processes by which the degree of coupling could change over time. Here, we introduce a conceptual framework for characterizing trajectories over time of coupling and de-coupling in social-ecological river systems. We analyze two conceptual scenarios describing coupling and de-coupling trajectories in a social-ecological system and define a series of key concepts for understanding social-ecological system trajectories. We tested these coupling and de-coupling trajectories theory by linking these concepts to empirical case examples of two river social-ecological systems in the western United States. Finally, we propose a quantitative approach with the potential for evaluating the level of social-ecological coupling and de-coupling trajectories in other SES contexts. This paper represents an advancing on the identification of specific actions that explain current SES trajectories and immediate actions to reinforce or shift the trajectory.

 

Abstract Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital—equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth’s current trajectory and support for actions that would foster more sustainable pathways suggests potential social tipping points in public demand for an earth stewardship vision. Here, we draw on empirical studies and theory to show that movement toward a stewardship vision can be facilitated by changes in either policy incentives or social norms. Our novel contribution is to point out that both norms and incentives must change and can do so interactively. This can be facilitated through leverage points and complementarities across policy areas, based on values, system design, and agency. Potential catalysts include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors, such as businesses, civic leaders, and social movements as agents for redistribution of power. Because no single intervention will transform the world, a key challenge is to align actions to be synergistic, persistent, and scalable.